Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Nuclear Iran Part II

A nuclear missile armed Iran will usher in an era of instability for the world exceeding what took place during the U.S./Soviet Union's Cold War.

I say this because for most of Soviet Union's nuclear history a stable person or group of people were in charge. Stalin was a paranoid, delusional individual, but he died in 1953 before that country had the ability to wipe out the U.S.

Like Iran, the Soviets were also after world domination, of a sort, but unlike the current crop of lunies in Iran the Sovs did not want to preside over a nuclear wasteland. I am not convinced that the same can be said of Iran's president President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. I don't think he would be bothered in the least if most of the Middle East were a nuclear wasteland as long as it was free of Jews and Americans.

The other frightening aspect is that the Iranians and Soviets operate under different principles.

The Soviets worked within a defined system, which they considered to be quite scientific, that stated capitalism was merely a step in history that had to be taken before the economic bliss of communism was achieved. That is one reason why World War III was never fought in Europe. The Soviets figured sooner or later those countries evolve into good communists. (The here joke is the soclialism practiced in several European countries comes pretty close to what the Sovs were after. They just needed to give it another 10 years.)

Ahmadinejad is working under a different system. Islam was originally spread by the sword and he does not see any reason to deviate from this path. If it worked 800 years ago it should work now. If he truly believes the religious rhetoric that he and his ilk spout then the world better get ready for its first regional nuclear war.

I don't think he will use his nuclear weapons for blackmail. He already has the best tool for blackmail, oil. Ahmadinejad can effectively ruin the world's economy by shutting off the flow of Iranian oil. His own country would suffer, but not much since its people have little to lose. A few months with 10 percent of the world's oil gone from the pipeline would create $8 per gallon gas in the U.S.

So if the nukes are not needed to force the world to bend to Iran's will that leaves only one other option. The elimination of Israel. Ahmadinejad has threatened to physically destroy Israel, a step never taken by a U.S. president or Soviet premiere. This is a hard promise to back away from, especially in the Middle East where appearance and pride are so valued particularly when Israel is involvdd. If Ahmadinejad truly believes God/Allah wants him to destroy Israel then he may well do so irregardless of the fact that Iran would quickly be incinerated.

Again, if Ahmadinejad is a true believer in his system he might not hesitate to take this step. Just like the suicide bombers he has helped finance in Israel and Iraq.

No good can come out of a nuclear armed Iran. The world has to get its act together and decide on an approach that will stop Iran. Writing forcefull letters, the EU method, will not hurt Iran unless Ahmadinejad gets a paper cut opening envelope. Strict sanctions, even if it hurts the world's ecomony for a period, should be put in place with a hard date stating that military will commence immediately if Iran does not change its plan.


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